How "Predictive Coding" Affects Your Neurodiverse Marriage

Posted by Mark Hutten, M.A.

How "Predictive Coding" Affects Your Neurodiverse Marriage

Predictive coding is a theory of how the brain processes information. In simple terms, it says that the brain is not a passive receiver of sensory input—it is an active prediction machine.

The core idea (plain language)

Your brain is constantly:

Predicting what it expects to perceive
Comparing that prediction to what actually comes in through the senses
Updating its internal model based on the difference (called prediction error)

Perception, emotion, and even thought emerge from this ongoing loop.

How predictive coding works (step-by-step)

Top-down predictions
The brain generates expectations based on past experience (“I expect to see a chair here”).
Bottom-up sensory input
Sensory data comes in from the eyes, ears, skin, etc.
Prediction error
The brain calculates the mismatch between expectation and reality.
Model updating
- If the prediction is accurate → little effort required
- If it’s inaccurate → the brain adjusts its model or behavior

The brain’s goal is to minimize surprise, not to passively “record reality.”

A simple example

You’re walking up stairs and expect another step—but it isn’t there.

Your brain predicted “step”
Reality violated that prediction
Result: a sudden jolt, loss of balance, emotional spike

That jolt is prediction error made conscious.

Why predictive coding matters

Predictive coding is used to explain:

Perception (why we “see” what we expect to see)
Attention (we focus where prediction error is likely)
Learning (models update through error)
Emotion (unexpected outcomes create affect)
Sense of self (stable predictions about “me”)

Predictive coding and mental health

From this view:

Anxiety = overpredicting threat + high sensitivity to error
Depression = rigid negative predictions that don’t update easily
Trauma = predictions shaped by past danger that override present safety
Psychosis = disrupted balance between prediction and sensory evidence

Predictive coding and ASD (Autism Spectrum Disorder)

This framework is often used to understand ASD:

Predictions may be less flexible or overly precise
Sensory input may carry more weight than expectations
Result:
- Sensory overwhelm
- Difficulty with ambiguity or change
- Strong need for routines (to reduce prediction error)
- Social interactions feel exhausting (high uncertainty)

This does not mean “deficit”—it means a different predictive balance.

One-sentence summary

Predictive coding says the brain is constantly guessing what will happen next and adjusting itself when it’s wrong—and most of our experience is the management of those errors.

1. Predictive Coding through a Therapy / Coaching Lens

From a therapeutic perspective, predictive coding reframes symptoms as strategies rather than defects.

Core therapeutic translation

The client is not “overreacting”
Their brain is protecting them from predicted harm
Emotional distress signals a high prediction error, not pathology

In therapy or coaching:

Presenting problems = outdated predictions still running the system
Symptoms = the cost of maintaining those predictions
Change = helping the brain safely update its model

Therapy becomes less about “fixing thoughts” and more about:

Increasing felt safety
Reducing prediction certainty
Creating new corrective experiences

Insight alone rarely changes predictions.
Repeated emotional experience does.

2. Predictive Coding in Relationships & Couples

Relationships are shared prediction systems.

Each partner constantly predicts:

How the other will respond
Whether they will be understood
Whether closeness is safe or risky

Common couple pattern

Partner A’s brain predicts:

“If I express this need, I’ll be dismissed.”

Partner B’s brain predicts:

“If I’m criticized, I’ll be overwhelmed or attacked.”

Both partners behave in ways that confirm their own predictions, even when the other is not intending harm.

Why couples get stuck

Predictions are self-reinforcing
The nervous system prioritizes certainty over connection
Even painful predictions feel safer than unknown ones

This explains:

Repetitive arguments
Misinterpretation of tone
Overreaction to small cues
“We keep having the same fight”

Coaching move for couples

Instead of asking:

“Who’s right?”

Ask:

“What is each nervous system predicting right now?”

Then work on:

Slowing interactions
Making predictions explicit
Creating low-threat disconfirming experiences

3. Predictive Coding vs. Behaviorism and CBT

Behaviorism

Focus: Observable behavior
Change mechanism: Reinforcement and punishment
Assumption: Modify behavior → experience will follow

Limitation:
Does not explain why the same stimulus produces different reactions in different people.

CBT (Cognitive Behavioral Therapy)

Focus: Thoughts → feelings → behaviors
Change mechanism: Identify and challenge distorted beliefs

Limitation:
Assumes beliefs are accessible and modifiable through logic alone.

Predictive Coding

Focus: Pre-conscious predictions
Change mechanism: Updating internal models through lived experience
Assumption: The brain protects first, explains later

Key difference

CBT works top-down
Predictive coding works top-down and bottom-up

This explains why:

Clients say, “I know it’s not true, but I still feel it”
Couples understand each other intellectually yet remain reactive

4. Emotional Reactivity Explained by Predictive Coding

Emotional reactivity = prediction alarm

When the brain predicts:

Rejection
Abandonment
Loss of control
Overwhelm

…it prepares the body before conscious thought occurs.

This leads to:

Sudden anger
Defensiveness
Anxiety spikes
Tears that feel “out of nowhere”

The emotion is not the problem.
It is the signal that a prediction has been violated or threatened.

Why reactions feel disproportionate

The reaction matches the predicted danger, not the current event.

Example:

A neutral comment activates a prediction shaped by past criticism
The nervous system responds to the old threat
The present partner gets blamed for a historical prediction

5. Shutdown, Withdrawal, and Emotional Numbing

Shutdown is predictive coding’s emergency brake.

When the brain predicts:

No successful response
No safe expression
No possibility of being understood

…it reduces sensory and emotional input.

This looks like:

Stonewalling
Dissociation
Emotional numbness
“I don’t care anymore” (protective, not true)

Shutdown is not avoidance—it’s energy conservation under predicted failure.

6. Coaching & Therapy Interventions (Practical)

For individuals

Normalize reactions as predictive, not defective
Identify:
- “What does your brain expect right now?”
Build tolerance for small prediction errors

For couples

Slow the interaction before prediction escalation
Name predictions out loud:
- “My brain expects rejection here”
Create micro-experiences of safety, not grand emotional talks

For neurodiverse couples (especially ASD)

Predictive load is higher in social situations
Misattunement creates rapid prediction error
Routines, clarity, and explicit communication reduce cognitive strain

This reframes:

Withdrawal as regulation
Literal thinking as prediction stabilization
Sensitivity as information processing, not weakness

One Integrative Clinical Sentence

Predictive coding explains that emotional reactivity and shutdown are not failures of insight or communication, but nervous-system strategies to manage predicted threat when safety feels uncertain.